Getting Started

How do I get started on identifying risk events on my particular project?

Where to Start - 1

Research project risk information sources:

·         Corporate records of previous projects

·         Use standard check lists, if available

·         Experiences of the current project or program group

·         Commercial data sources, articles and publications

·         Consultation with Professional (consulting) Experts

·         Collective wisdom of 'experts' in committee

·         Interviewing experts one-on-one

Where to Start - 2

Adopt some project team activity techniques such as:

·         Brainstorming (What if...?) by project team members

·         Start by examining the project's assumptions

·         Study the "Project Knowledge Wheel" shown in the next slide: It can help develop broader ideas

·         A SWOT analysis

·         Delphi Technique

·         Critical Path Analysis using the Monte Carlo Technique

Look for possible Risk Events in the Knowledge Wheel

 Brainstorming risk events

·      Brainstorming is probably the most frequently used risk identification technique

·         Because it is popular and fun

·         It is similar to that described in Issacon #1061

·      The objective is to develop a comprehensive list of risk events

·         For later analysis

Running the brainstorming session

Allow a finite time - like 45 minutes

1. Assemble members of your project team

·         Invite experts from other projects if possible

2. The facilitator (you the project manager) jots down all risk event ideas on a flip chart

·         Encourage the broadest possible scope

·         Don't criticize - just get them all down

3. Now group them by source (or type)
4. Sharpen the descriptions
5. Have the group rank them subjectively
6. Take them away for analysis

SWOT Analysis

SWOT stands for "Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats"

·         Ensures review of the project from each of the SWOT perspectives

·         Helps to broaden the discussion

·         Conduct it as a brainstorming session

·         Similar to that described on the previous page

Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is a means for reaching consensus among experts

·         The experts are not co-located

·         They are identified but participate anonymously

·         The facilitator distributes information about the project: scope, WBS, assumptions, etc

·         Then uses a suitable questionnaire to solicit risk event suggestions

·         The submitted responses are distributed for further comment

·         Consensus should be reached after a few rounds

When to use the Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is adopted

·         Where bias in the data must be avoided

·         No person may have undue influence over the outcome

·         It is all very tedious

What's the Monte Carlo technique?

Monte Carlo is a statistical method using random numbers

·         By applying it to static PERT scheduling models (e.g. several hundred times by computer) it is supposed to predict how the real system might behave

·         The random numbers are applied to each activity in the network

·         Revealing the possibility of different critical paths

·         And associated activities

How does Monte Carlo help?

·      In a schedule with many activities, a Cumulative S-curve will indicate the chances of completing within a given time frame (see next page)

·      It also provides good insight into which activities could be become 'critical'

·         And hence should be included on the risk list

·         For closer management attention

·         It is popular with scheduling consultants!

Monte Carlo Simulation applied to a Project Schedule

Diagramming Techniques

·      Cause and effect (fishbone) diagrams

·         Useful for identifying sources of risk

·      System flow charts

·         Displaying the elements of a system, especially the sequence and relationships

·         May identify weaknesses in the process

·      Influence diagrams

·         A graphical presentation of a situation or problem

·         Similar to a flow chart but including feedback loops

·         Including the possibility of an "endless loop"!

What have we accomplished?

You should end up with:

·         A list of uncertain events

·         That may have either a positive or negative impact on the project

·         For further analysis

·         A set of "triggers" or warning signs

·         Implying the need for corrective action

·         Some items that may need further clarification

Diagramming Techniques

·      Cause and effect (fishbone) diagrams

·         Useful for identifying sources of risk

·      System flow charts

·         Displaying the elements of a system, especially the sequence and relationships

·         May identify weaknesses in the process

·      Influence diagrams

·         A graphical presentation of a situation or problem

·         Similar to a flow chart but including feedback loops

·         Including the possibility of an "endless loop"!

What have we accomplished?

You should end up with:

·         A list of uncertain events

·         That may have either a positive or negative impact on the project

·         For further analysis

·         A set of "triggers" or warning signs

·         Implying the need for corrective action

·         Some items that may need further clarification